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Industry / 04 Agentic AI Semiconductors Demand planning

AI demand planning.

I drove the agentic-AI capability on top of the ML platform for demand-planning analysts at a global semiconductor company: a SaaS platform that plans billions in annual GPU and CPU revenue.

My role
AI Solutions Lead
Built at
C3 AI · Customer Solutions
Client
AMD
Team
Engineers, data scientists, architects
Status
Deployed

Confidentiality note. Proprietary figures are withheld. Screens, data and metrics shown here are sanitized recreations built for this portfolio, directionally accurate but not the client's actual numbers.

Solution design · forecast hierarchy → optimization → plan
Illustrative · sanitized data
01 · Inputs
Messy, multi-source signals
Bookings, billings & backlog
Channel sell-through & POS
Distributor inventory & resale
Macro & market exogenous signals
Pricing, lead times, allocations
10+ systems · heavy joins · weekly refresh · internal + exogenous variables
02 · Forecast engine
Every level, two horizons
EnterpriseBU ChannelDistributor SKU
WeeklyMonthly Downstream
ML + time-series, reconciled top-down & bottom-up so the levels agree
03 · Optimize
Allocate scarce capacity
Planning targets
Revenue
Service level
Margin inputs
Gurobi · trade-offs solved under capacity & commit constraints
04 · Plan
A plan analysts run on
Wafer-start & build plan
Allocation by customer
Planner note + rationale
written back to Snowflake · adopted in the planning workflow
Hyperscaler X · H-series GPU · units / week
A handful of customers order in lumps, a quarter of almost nothing, then a bulk spike. Forecasting when the spike lands is the hard part.
forecast → bulk order spike caught
actual orders AI forecast prior baseline
Forecast accuracy by level & horizon
Accuracy is held to account at every level and horizon, not hidden behind one headline number.
LevelWeeklyMonthly
Enterprise92%95%
Business unit87%91%
Channel81%88%
Distributor74%83%
Hyperscaler · spiky61%79%

A designed view of the system I led: messy multi-source demand reconciled into a forecast at every level and horizon, an optimizer that trades off revenue, margin and service level under capacity constraints, and a plan written back where analysts work. The hard part was never the chat, it was the spiky, high-variability customers and keeping every level honest.

01 · What it is

Demand planning for a chip business, end to end.

Planning a semiconductor portfolio means forecasting demand across GPU and CPU lines and then allocating scarce wafer capacity against it, every week, at the scale of billions in revenue. The catch is that "demand" isn't one number. It has to be forecast at every level, enterprise, business unit, sales channel, and distributor, and then propagated downstream to the end customers a distributor actually resells to. Each level is planned on its own and still has to add up.

I led the work to deliver this as a full SaaS platform on C3's agentic stack, where a planner could ask for a forecast, a what-if, or a reallocation and get a real answer with the numbers, and the reasoning, behind it.

02 · The hard parts

Why this is harder than it looks.

The demo is a calm front end over a genuinely messy problem. The data arrived dirty and fragmented, spread across more than ten systems, needing heavy joins before a model could see a clean signal. Demand is driven by both internal variables (bookings, backlog, pricing, lead times) and exogenous ones (macro cycles, market and seasonality), and they don't move together.

The sharpest problem was variability. A few very large customers, hyperscalers like the big cloud players, buy in lumps: a massive bulk order one month, near silence the next. A smooth model misses exactly the spikes that matter most. And accuracy can't be a single headline figure: it has to hold up at weekly and monthly horizons and at every level of the hierarchy, because a different planner trusts a different cell of that table.

top-down planning targets Enterprise portfolio Business unit GPU · CPU lines Channel OEM · cloud · retail Distributor regional Downstream resale → end spiky demand bottom-up sell-through & actuals forecast every level + horizon (weekly · monthly), reconciled so the numbers agree
One demand signal, many truths. Every level is forecast on its own horizon, then reconciled top-down and bottom-up so an enterprise target and a distributor's plan tell the same story.
03 · What I drove

Forecast, then optimize, then commit.

I owned this capability end to end and led a team of engineers, data scientists and architects to ship it as a full-stack SaaS application. Forecasting ran on regression and time-series models tuned for spiky, intermittent demand; the conversation on the OpenAI API; the app on React over Snowflake. But a forecast is only half the job, on top of it sits an optimization layer in Gurobi that turns demand into a buildable plan, trading off planning targets, revenue, service level and margin under hard capacity and commitment constraints.

Revenue Margin Service level Plan targets objectives, traded off ↓ Forecast every level & horizon Optimizer Gurobi · allocate capacity Allocation plan build · commit · note constraints → wafer capacity · committed supply · lead times · min / max allocation per customer
The optimization layer. The forecast and four competing objectives feed a Gurobi optimizer that allocates scarce capacity under hard constraints, turning a prediction into a plan the business can actually build to.

My job was the strategy and the delivery: what to build, in what order, and how to make planners trust it enough to run on it, level by level, horizon by horizon.

04 · Impact

Better forecasts, less stranded inventory.

40%
better forecast accuracy than the prior baseline
$XXM+
inventory reduction enabled by the application (figure withheld)
$B-scale
annual GPU and CPU revenue planned on it
Live
deployed and adopted by the planning analysts

The result was a planning workflow that analysts actually adopted, with measurably better forecasts, even on the spiky accounts, and far less capital tied up in stranded inventory.

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